As a retired CIA agent, Paul Zalucky has a unique view on the ongoing Russian invasion of Ukraine. He spent several years in central Europe including stays in Moscow and Kyiv, Ukraine. Zalucky now spends his summers in Southport. He recently visited Ukraine and returned to Maine and gave local residents a “first-hand account” of the conflict. 

The first invasion occurred in 2014 when Russia annexed the Ukranian province of Crimea. The most resent incursion occurred  Feb. 24, 2022 when Russians began a full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

“Ukraine will win, and I wouldn’t be surprised if they took back Crimea,” Zalucky told a packed house July 20 in the Southport town hall. “The tide has turned, and it’s going badly for Russia. When it appeared the Wagner Group was heading to Moscow, Putin got on a plane,” Zalucky said. “He lacks support. He pays for his support, and he has lost face with many of his allies.”

Zalucky believes Putin showed his true character when he fled Moscow. On June 24, the Wagner Group, a Russian state-funded paramilitary organization, headed to Moscow with a stated intention of removing Russia’s military government. Zalucky contrasted Putin’s actions with Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy who stood his ground when Russians crossed the border in 2022. “Zelenskyy was advised to leave the country or at least head to western Ukraine, but he didn’t. He ignored the West’s advice, and stood his ground,” he said. 

Zalucky believes Zelenskyy fortified his bond with the Ukranian people when he refused to leave the country. “I need ammunition not a ride,” Zelenskyy reportedly said following the 2022 invasion. Zalucky believes this sent a strong message. “That changed everything for the people over there. They became galvanized against the Russians, and determined not to let them come in,” Zalucky said.

Prior to updating locals about the current conflict, Zalucky discussed Ukraine’s past in helping Americans understand the historical context. He described Ukraine as more “central European” than Russian. He reported the Vikings originally settled Ukraine. It was not until after the Second World War when Ukraine became part of the Soviet Union. “For the West, World War II ended in 1945, but for eastern Europe it didn’t end until 1991,” Zalucky said. He told the audience, during his CIA career he was told eastern Europeans believed England and the U.S. allowed the Soviet Union to dominate eastern Europe following the war.

Zalucky also discussed recent history and mistakes made by American presidents in dealing with Ukraine’s future. Under President George H.W. Bush, the U.S. encouraged Ukraine to stay with Russia after the Soviet Union collapsed. Zalucky reminded the audience about Bush’s “Chicken Kiev” speech. “When the Soviet Union broke apart, Bush spoke with Gorbachev about Russia and Ukraine remaining together. Can you imagine that?” he asked the audience.

Under Clinton, the U.S. negotiated security “assurances” with Ukraine if they got rid of their nuclear weapons. “Now this wasn’t a guarantee. It was an assurance that the Russians would respect Ukrainian sovereignty and borders,” he said. Zalucky also believed weak responses to Russian aggression under President  George W. Bush and Barack Obama led to Putin believing he could invade Ukraine. Under George W. Bush, Russia invaded the Republic of Georgia and had little to no response, Zalucky said. In 2014, Russia invaded the Ukrainian province of Crimea, and President Obama imposed sanctions which had little impact, according to Zalucky.

During his presentation, Zalucky mistakenly called Putin “Trump” a couple of times. “Freudian slip,” he said. Zalucky did not mention any policy missteps by Trump toward Ukraine, but he was critical of Trump removing American diplomat Masha Yovanovitch. As far as President Biden’s leadership, Zalucky gives him a passing grade. “Biden has been pretty good except he’s been about three months late in making decisions,” he said. “But the ones he’s made have been good.”

During the question and answer period, Zalucky was asked about the war’s likely outcome. Zalucky does not believe Russia will use nuclear weapons. “They have been told by China not to use nuclear weapons under any circumstance. So no, I don’t think that is an option,” he said. 

Another question regarded what the United States’ interest in this European conflict is. “Russia wants to change the world order for the next 50-100 years. Ukraine is fighting for their freedom and the whole western world’s,” he said. 

Zalucky spent 28 years overseas in the CIA. He retired in 2008. He served in Moscow and Kyiv, Ukraine as a senior representative. He remained in eastern Europe following retirement to pursue business interests in the defense and technology sectors. This was the second time he spoke as a guest lecturer for Southport Island Association’s speaker series.